Economics and Markets Lab
July 04, 2008, 03:19:20 PM *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
News: Benvenuti sul forum di Usemlab!
 
   Home   Help Login Register  
Pages: 1 [2]
  Print  
Author Topic: Crack Up Boom  (Read 3966 times)
John Smith
Regulars
Sr. Member
*
Posts: 409


« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2007, 10:26:00 AM »

In qualche modo potranno forse riuscire, dopo alcuni di questi tracolli, a varare una nuova moneta e far digerire alla popolazione mondiale gli squilibri attuali attraverso un bel periodo di catarsi.

Ciao. Permettimi di dissentire. Per varare la nuova moneta bisogna prima distruggere la vecchia, e questo può avvenire solo per iperinflazione. Un crack, paradossalmente, salverebbe la moneta perchè la rivaluterebbe:
- nell'incertezza, la gente vuol stare liquida
- a fallire sarebbero i debitori
- sarebbero favorite le classi medie, che non hanno debiti, quando invece è sotto gli occhi che ci sia la voglia di eliminarle.
Inoltre, se davvero si volesse agire come dici, dovrebbero averlo già fatto. Invece, la realtà dei fatti dimostra che stiamo andando nella direzione opposta. Per cui non credo che vedremo i tracolli che dici. Ribassi, quelli sì.
Ma soprattutto per me c'è l'aspetto cospirativo ("noi scateneremo gli atei e i nichilisti...") sul quale non godo di molto credito e quindi lascio stare Grin
Logged
AlessioR
Regulars
Hero Member
*
Posts: 611


on the blackboard:reading makes a country great


« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2007, 10:21:32 PM »

http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2007/12/14/18466914.php
Quote
Our economic system: is this the end of the world’s economic Pyramid Scheme?
Logged

We are about to be reminded that empires do not fall because of barbarians at the gates, wars of civilizations, or free trade. It's the inflation that kills them
Francesco
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Posts: 1806



« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2008, 12:44:01 AM »

Questo potrebbe essere interessante per andare a fondo sui diversi scenari che ci aspettano davanti a livello macroeconomico e di sistema monetario:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=26304#poststop

Il crackupboom misesiano viene escluso per gli usa, perchè si dice, sono necessari quattro fattori per causare una spirale iperinflazionistica:

   1. Large and growing external debt as a percentage of GDP with falling GDP (Yes, like the US.)
   2. Politically and economically isolated and irrelevant (Not like the US. Think: Zimbabwe.)
   3. No external demand for the currency (Not like the US dollar. Think: Iraqi Dinar.)
   4. Political chaos (i.e., tanks rolling down the street, not like the US.)


Non sono molto d'accordo. Il crackupboom secondo me è possibilissimo. Ovviamente non coinvolgerà solo gli USA, sarà un crackupboom di estensione globale. Oramai è tardi e leggerò il pezzo con più attenzione domani. Si tratta di una discussione sicuramente molto interessante.
Logged
L.Baggiani
Regulars
Hero Member
*
Posts: 560



WWW
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2008, 09:12:59 AM »

   1. Large and growing external debt as a percentage of GDP with falling GDP (Yes, like the US.)
   2. Politically and economically isolated and irrelevant (Not like the US. Think: Zimbabwe.)
   3. No external demand for the currency (Not like the US dollar. Think: Iraqi Dinar.)
   4. Political chaos (i.e., tanks rolling down the street, not like the US.)


Senza aver letto l'articolo, osserverei che la 2) o non è rilevante o anzi nel caso è un'aggravante, perché l'apertura economica consente la fuga dei capitali; la 3) non prende in considerazione lo shift da dollaro a euro; la 4) non mi pare rilevante né teoricamente né storicamente.
Il crollo dopo il fiat boom è un fatto economico e in un certo senso meccanico; è solo questione di tempo.
Logged

"understand procedures, understand war, understand rules, regulations... I don't understand, sorry.
[...]
I don't really know what 'sorry' means"
_____________________________________
View my research on my SSRN Author page:
http://ssrn.com/author=636573
AlessioR
Regulars
Hero Member
*
Posts: 611


on the blackboard:reading makes a country great


« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2008, 10:05:38 PM »

http://www.gata.org/node/6181
Murray Pollitt: People don't yet see it's a money problem, but they will
Quote
Yet for the moment, even as manifestations of inflation intensify, the popular wisdom is that commodities have been in a bubble phase. Nobody is worried about the integrity of money. Nobody sees well-publicized financial upheavals as propelling the flight out of money; rather, economic gurus argue that safety lies in holding cash or bonds.
The latter remain strong and it's still the mortgage/sub-prime/Bear Stearns/hedge fund stuff that makes the headlines. Soon enough it will be derivatives, and then perhaps people will grasp that this is a money problemmore than anything else.
In fact the monetary system is moving into its death throes. Back in the early 1960s, when the first cracks in Bretton Woods and the US dollar appeared, the predecessors to the G7 cooked up the General Agreement to Borrow (GAB) with a whopping $6 billion aid package. Another innovation that was supposed to solve the world's problems was the introduction of Special Drawing Rights (advertised as "paper gold").We all seek refuge somewhere. Bond guys cannot believe stocks, gold guys think that "gold in the ground" is undervalued, and financial services guys are in shock. The hyperinflation guys (that's us) cannot believe bonds but see the resilience in solid stocks and commodities as a perfectly logical flight out of money. Strong manufacturers with sophisticated assets and proprietary
wealth (such as P&G or CAT) will thrive and prosper, along with resources, long after the money is gone.
Gold, the real thing, will probably outperform most shares.
Quote
wealth (such as P&G or CAT)
su questi sono un pò meno d'accordo anche se considerati beni "reali"...sul reso... 2thumbsup

Logged

We are about to be reminded that empires do not fall because of barbarians at the gates, wars of civilizations, or free trade. It's the inflation that kills them
AlessioR
Regulars
Hero Member
*
Posts: 611


on the blackboard:reading makes a country great


« Reply #20 on: May 18, 2008, 01:18:14 PM »

http://www.safehaven.com/article-10269.htm
Inflate Away Debt? Three Lessons from History
Quote
US money supply growth is running at a 47-year high...
"Clearly printing such huge amounts of money is not great for the exchange rate. A weak Dollar has forced the hand of other central banks as they try and keep their currencies competitive with it."
But might the scam work? Not if China, Japan and the big Dollar-holders of the Arab oil kingdoms can help it. Will they really let their own currencies rise just so the United States stuffs them by paying its debts with devalued Dollars?
Inflation, it's claimed, eases the burden of settling your debts. But for government and private debtors alike, that's only true if your income rises faster than your on-going cost of expenditure. Otherwise, you end up struggling to make ends meet today, only to leave yesterday's debts for repayment tomorrow again...
however this latest attempt to inflate away debt pans out in the long run, it's sure to make history...

vediamo se richiamiamo l'attenzione di nuovi lettori che voglion comprendere il "perchè"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/H6/discm3.htm Discontinuance of M3
Quote
Will they really let their own currencies rise
http://www.usemlab.com/html/analisi/tributo.htm
Quote
E' questo, che lo si voglia ammettere o meno, il fine ultimo delle autorità americane..reintegrare la ricchezza del sistema economico nazionale con il contributo ma soprattutto a spese della ricchezza del resto del mondo...L'economia più forte del pianeta che in un anno aumenta la propria massa monetaria del 15-18% (le stime cambiano a seconda della definizione di M presa in considerazione) a fronte di una contrazione del GDP, e la cui valuta mantiene saldamente il proprio valore nei confronti delle altre, rappresenta senza alcun dubbio una forma di tassazione implicita per tutti coloro che accettano il dollaro come forma di pagamento...

Logged

We are about to be reminded that empires do not fall because of barbarians at the gates, wars of civilizations, or free trade. It's the inflation that kills them
AlessioR
Regulars
Hero Member
*
Posts: 611


on the blackboard:reading makes a country great


« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2008, 10:00:46 PM »

http://www.thetrumpet.com/index.php?q=4860.3130.0.0
Is Zimbabwe-style Inflation Coming to America?

Quote
...To deal with his economic problems, Mugabe decided to crank up the printing presses and create the money needed to pay the bills. As his economy collapsed, the massive money-printing scheme only helped to speed the descent. When you print money by the boat load, then drop it by helicopters into the economy, there can only be one probable result—hyperinflation. All existing money in circulation rapidly became worthless. People’s life savings were destroyed, the cost of bananas and toothpaste soared into the thousands, and businesses could no longer function. Zimbabwe, once the crown jewel of Africa, became a basket case...
The lesson for America is that we are traveling a similarly precarious course...
A society grows rich by producing things … and saving money. There is no other way. Cheaper credit won’t do it. More consumption won’t help. Printing money—and dumping it from helicopters—is a losing proposition...
But America has already embarked on a money-printing scheme of historic proportions. U.S. money supply, as measured by M3, is expanding at a yearly rate of almost 18 percent. That is a rate probably not seen since the war years...

And there are signs that all the money creation is beginning to affect prices. Check out these recent headlines from Bloomberg, Reuters and the Dallas Morning News.
Oil Rises Above $101 to Record on Increased Demand, Rate Cuts
Gold, Silver Futures Rebound on Demand for Inflation Hedge
New York Bond Costs Rise as Banks Let Auctions Fail
Electricity Prices Likely to Rise, Experts Say
U.S. Economy: Housing Slump Fails to Quell Inflation
Chips, Beer Off the Grocery List as Inflation Bites
Foodmakers Squeezed by Costs, Strapped Consumers
Creating money out of thin air may temporarily stimulate an economy, but as history clearly shows, the medicine is eventually worse than the disease. The end is always the same—a worthless currency, a destroyed economy and a bankrupt nation.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Bernanke
Ben Bernanke
In 2002, when the word "deflation" began appearing in the business news, Bernanke gave a speech about deflation.[12] In that speech, he mentioned that the government in a fiat money system owns the physical means of creating money. Control of the means of production for money implies that the government can always avoid deflation by simply issuing more money. (He referred to a statement made by Milton Friedman about using a "helicopter drop" of money into the economy to fight deflation.) Bernanke's critics have since referred to him as "Helicopter Ben" or to his "helicopter printing press". In a footnote to his speech, Bernanke noted that "people know that inflation erodes the real value of the government's debt and, therefore, that it is in the interest of the government to create some inflation
Logged

We are about to be reminded that empires do not fall because of barbarians at the gates, wars of civilizations, or free trade. It's the inflation that kills them
Pages: 1 [2]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1 | SMF © 2006, Simple Machines LLC Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!